Which Republicans Will Vote No? What 8 News Organizations Are Reporting
By JOSH KATZ and KEVIN QUEALY MARCH 22, 2017
Negotiations are moving quickly, and lawmakers may move together in blocs; a handful have already switched their public 'no' statements to 'yes.'
The Times willupdate this table as statements change. We last updated this article at 11:33 PM Wednesday.
Potential Republican votes against the AHCA, counted by each news organization. If 23 Republicans vote "no," the bill will likely fail.
On Thursday evening, the House is expected to vote on the American Health Care Act, a sweeping bill that would overhaul the health care system, effectively repealing and replacing Obamacare. Congressional Republicans are under intense pressure to pass the bill, and President Trump applied even more to wavering Republicans on Tuesday, threatening political payback for any member who votes against it. Yet some have so far been unmoved, in many cases because they think the bill does not go far enough in repealing Obamacare.
Will the bill pass the House?
Estimates vary about precisely how close the vote will be. Several news organizations, including The New York Times, are performing an unofficial "whip count," repeatedly asking members of Congress how they will vote and why. The numbers above represent the aggregated answers reported by eight news outlets, including The Times.
Negotiations continued late Wednesday, with Mark Meadows, chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, telling reporters he remained hopeful of a deal. At the moment, many of the "no" votes here represent members of this group; if they do end up supporting the bill, it will almost certainly pass.
Below, the Republican lawmakers each organization is counting as a "no" vote. (The Times has a detailed explanation of every Republican's stated position here.)
Potential Republican votes against the AHCA, counted by each news organization
| NYT29 | CBS29 | CNN24 | HUFFPO29 | NBC29 | NPR32 | THE HILL28 | WAPO25 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin AmashMich. 3 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | 23 No Votesneeded to reject bill* | |
| Dave BratVa. 7 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Mo BrooksAla. 5 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Ted BuddN.C. 13 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Warren DavidsonOhio 8 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Tom GarrettVa. 5 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Jim JordanOhio 4 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Raul R. LabradorIdaho 1 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Leonard LanceN.J. 7 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Thomas MassieKy. 4 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||
| Rod BlumIowa 1 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Dan DonovanN.Y. 11 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Brian FitzpatrickPa. 8 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Andy HarrisMd. 1 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Walter B. JonesN.C. 3 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| John KatkoN.Y. 24 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Frank A. LoBiondoN.J. 2 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Mark MeadowsN.C. 11 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Ileana Ros-LehtinenFla. 27 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Rob WittmanVa. 1 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Ted YohoFla. 3 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| David YoungIowa 3 | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | |||
| Rick CrawfordArk. 1 | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||||
| Louie GohmertTex. 1 | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||||
| Paul GosarAriz. 4 | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||||
| Charlie DentPa. 15 | No | No | No | No | No | No | ||||
| Mark SanfordS.C. 1 | No | No | No | No | No | |||||
| Bill PoseyFla. 8 | No | No | No | |||||||
| Christopher H. SmithN.J. 4 | No | No | No | No | ||||||
| Scott PerryPa. 4 | No | No | No | No | No | |||||
| Scott DesJarlaisTenn. 4 | No | No | No | No | ||||||
| Glenn ThompsonPa. 5 | No | No | No | |||||||
| Andy BiggsAriz. 5 | No | No | ||||||||
| Jim BridenstineOkla. 1 | No | No | ||||||||
| Don YoungAlaska 1 | No | No | ||||||||
| Ken BuckColo. 4 | No | |||||||||
| Ron DeSantisFla. 6 | No | |||||||||
| Jeff DuncanS.C. 3 | No | |||||||||
| Jody B. HiceGa. 10 | No | |||||||||
| Darrell IssaCalif. 49 | No | |||||||||
| Mike JohnsonLa. 4 | No | |||||||||
| Steve KingIowa 4 | No | |||||||||
| Barry LoudermilkGa. 11 | ||||||||||
| Randy WeberTex. 14 | No |
The differences among published counts reflect the fluidity and uncertainty of the situation, as well as varying levels of strictness about what constitutes a "no" vote. Democrats have said they will unite against the bill, so Speaker Paul Ryan can afford only 22 defections by Republicans*.
Intense negotiations are expected on Thursday – what our colleagues Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Thomas Kaplan and Robert Pear described as "a combination of cajoling, browbeating and horse-trading that recalled Democrats' efforts to pass the law in 2010." Republican lawmakers have already made several revisions to the bill, many devised to appeal to the party's right flank.
The Times will update this table as statements change. Check there
*Bobby L. Rush, a Democrat, may miss the vote because of the death of his wife.
This article appears in the New York Times, March 23, 2017.
Are you represented by a Republican in the House?
Call your elected officials. Here is a list by Congressional Districts.Make sure your Reps know they will lose their next election unless they vote AGAINST Trumpcare.
If each of us makes 2-4 calls today before the vote, Trumpcare will fail.
#StopTrumpcare StopTrump
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March 23, 2017
